MEDIA QUERY – SAPVIA & PV MAGAZINE
I hope you are both well. I’m planning to write an article for pv magazine on the current outlook for the South African pv market. Would someone at SAPVIA be able to help with the following questions?:
Do you know how much new PV capacity was deployed in South Africa in 2024? And how much capacity was deployed in 2023?
South Africa deployed approximately 1.1 GW of new solar PV capacity. This was a decrease compared to 2023, when the country added around 2.6 GW of new capacity.
How much new PV capacity do you predict for 2025 and 2026?
For 2025, the forecast is approximately 2.5-3 GW of new capacity, a mixture of private and public procurement. Looking further ahead to 2026, the projection is even more optimistic, with an expected addition of approximately 3.5-4GW, across procurement schemes.
Private procurement has driven the utility scale solar PV project development market since the beginning of 2023 with the total capacity of 2738MW across 384 projects registered with the National Energy regulator in 2023 and 2880MW across 454 projects registered in 2024 to date. (We are still awaiting final confirmation from NERSA regarding the December 2024 registration data). The data received from NERSA for 2023 and 2024 can then be further broken down per SAPVIA designated market segment as follows:
| SAPVIA Market Segment | Sum of Capacity (MW) | Number of Registrations | Status |
| SSEG (1MW and smaller) | 245.2 | 688 | Majority operational |
| C&I Large Scale (1-50MW) | 886.8 | 117 | 2 thirds likely operational |
| Utility Scale (Larger than 50MW) | 4486.3 | 33 | Majority under construction |
| Total | 5618.3 | 838 |
Source: NERSA registrations data and SAPVIA NERSA registrations Dashboard – Data provisional awaiting final confirmation from NERSA regarding December 2024 data.
These projects are at various stages of operation, construction and financial close. A large portion of the Utility scale projects registered in 2023 and 2024 will become operational in 2025 and 2026. The rate at which projects will reach operations will be determined by many factors including availability of project components and the availability of constructions skills.
In the public procurement space, 6 Utility Scale solar PV projects reached Financial close in 2023 and 2024, a total of 708MW. These projects will enter into construction in early 2025, with 75MW already under construction. Solar PV projects from the 7th Bid window, totalling 1760MW will likely reach financial close in early 2026 and enter into construction throughout 2026.
What were the main market drivers in 2024 and what do you expect the main market drivers to be for the next two years?
The evolution of the South African Energy Supply industry, highlighted by the functional separation of the vertically integrated utility, Eskom, into Transmission, distribution and generation, with the first step finalised in 2024 by the establishment of the National transmission Company South Africa, NTCSA, has driven the adoption of renewable energy solutions in 2024 building on the main driver of demand in 2023, namely a response to loadshedding, the structural shortage of adequate generation capacity to meet demand. The ESI restructuring alongside regulatory reforms in South Africa has led to the proliferation of private sector project development and deployment for bi-later PPA’s and energy trader/aggregator applications. This will continue to be the biggest driver of growth of the large-scale PV market over the next 2 years.
The establishment of a wholesale electricity market, slated for implementation in 2031 at the earliest, alongside the much-needed investment in transmission infrastructure, enabling the development of projects in high renewable potential areas of the country currently grappling with insufficient connection capacity for new projects, will further drive growth in the large-scale solar PV market over the next 2 to 5 years.
Do you think these trends will shape the future of solar energy as predicted?
See above
Can you provide some details on residential PV, C&I, and large-scale segments? Which is currently performing best in South Africa?
Utility scale market dynamics have been discussed elsewhere.
The C&I market segment will continue to be driven by several factors including the continued cost declines of Solar PV technology alongside the cost declines in BESS technology leading to an increase in PV and BESS deployment in C&I applications, both as new builds and retrofitting of BESS for existing grid tied PV systems. Grid insecurity due to ageing municipal distribution infrastructure alongside the additional benefits of BESS, namely tariff arbitrage and peak demand management, will further drive the deployment of PV and BESS for C&I applications.
C&I Grid tied solar PV will continue to be driven by operational cost concerns, maintaining of global competitiveness and corporate net-zero targets.
Residential Solar PV and BESS deployment is still driven overwhelmingly driven by energy security concerns, with a marked slowdown seen in installations in 2024 compared to 2023. However, tax incentives and feed-in credit schemes are currently being evaluated by national and local government to drive adoption of solar PV and BESS amongst middle and low income households specifically.
Were auctions for large-scale renewables held in 2024? If yes, can you provide some details on the allocated capacity and final prices?
Yes. Round 7 of the REIPPP Programme auction resulted in 1760MW of Solar PV projects awarded across 8 projects at an average tariff of 2.52 ($c/kWh, 2024 Real).
Are corporate PPAs being implemented in South Africa? If yes, do you have an idea how much planned and deployed PV capacity is under PPAs?
Yes, the Private PPA market has grown substantially since regulatory reform enabled the s enacted in late 2022 allowing the entrance of utility scale private generators into the South African market without requiring a government issued generation licence. This change coupled with a strong private sector demand for clean energy due to global corporate emission targets and maintaining competitiveness in export markets introducing carbon import taxes, like CBAM in the EU. In 2023 927MW of large and Utility scale solar PV projects reached financial close, compared to 354MW in 2024. As things stand there is currently 899MW capacity in construction, 685MW in development, 402 in FC, 400 in advanced development and 398MW of operational capacity.
DATA Source: https://powerfutureslab.co.za/sa-ipp-data – Private Contracted Power Project – Solar PV.
Would you suggest any regulatory changes to improve the market?
Nothing to add at this point.
